The South China Sea, a vital waterway surrounded by several nations, has become a geopolitical hotspot in recent years. Amidst the complex and often contentious territorial disputes, a metaphorical and strategic concept has emerged, the "Chinese Cabbage Strategy."
Chinese cabbage, known for its versatility, resilience, and ability to survive in various conditions, can be intended as a metaphor for strategic planning.
In fact, the Chinese cabbage strategy represents PRC (People’s Republic of China) hybrid approach to the South China Sea, which combines diplomatic maneuvers, military posturing and economic coercion.
The military sphere of the strategy
In terms of military posture, the Chinese cabbage is renowned for its adaptability, which it has successfully displayed in its military approach to the South China Sea.
Within this area, the Chinese government is currently involved in territorial disputes with neighboring countries (such as Indonesia, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam) for the control of uninhabited small atolls and islands scattered across this vast marine land.
Cleverly, the Beijing government decided to avoid a direct military confrontation with those countries and resorted to a more hybrid approach, the Cabbage strategy, that implies a broad effort to “wrap” a disputed island under several layers of Chinese control.
The first move that have been usually undertaken by the PRC authorities is to realize a fait accompli, determining a rudimental form of control over the disputed islands, such as the presence of Chinese fishermen boats and the construction of some sort of rudimentary building on the disputed territory. Later on, this first glimpse of Chinese presence is strengthened by sending several coast guard ships and navy units, in order to ensure the protection of these improvised outposts.
The presence of the Chinese military ships near the disputed territory, makes it almost impossible for the other states involved in the dispute to resume control of the island without causing a direct armed clash with Chinese units and consequently an escalation that could lead to an open conflict against Beijing.
The Cabbage strategy not only implies getting control over disputed islands in the South China Sea, but also effectively building artificial islands.
While the other states have limited themselves by building small semi-permanent structures for local fishermen in their islands located in the South China Sea, Beijing government has promoted a process of enlargement of the small atolls that currently control, expanding their territory through the dredging of underwater sediments.
Consequently, many of what previously appeared as semi-submerged atolls now appear as artificial islands capable of supporting forms of economic activity, but also, in some cases, of hosting military installations such as airstrips, radar and missile batteries.
These strategic assets located in the Chinese artificial (and non-artificial) islands allow the PRC to project and extend its military capabilities well beyond its borders and this could prove fundamental, in the case of a conflict against the United States or other regional powers, to keep in check the commercial and military communication routes that pass through the South China Sea.
The economic pillars of the strategy
Other than being a strategic crossroads from a military perspective, the South China Sea is also rich in natural resources and a vital maritime route for global trade.
For these reasons this area has been crucial for China’s economic ambitions as Beijing developed an economic strategy for the South China Sea that combines the infrastructure development, resource exploitation, and strategic partnerships.
One of the cornerstones of China's economic strategy in the South China Sea is infrastructure development, which has been carried out mainly through the BRI.
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is a massive infrastructure and economic development project launched by China, that further underscores its economic footprint in the region.
The South China Sea plays a crucial role in the maritime component of the BRI, connecting China to important markets in Southeast Asia, Europe, and Africa.
The ports and logistics hubs developed along the sea route are evidence of the great influence that China has gained in the area and strengthen the latter's economic ties with neighboring countries, making them dependent on goods produced by the PRC and therefore vulnerable to eventual economic coercion imposed by Beijing.
Furthermore, the South China Sea is estimated to contain significant oil and natural gas reserves, making it a valuable economic asset.
China's pursuit of these resources has fueled tensions, as it has engaged in exploration and drilling activities within disputed waters.
However, through a combination of unilateral actions (as the “layers” described in the "military sphere" description above) and bilateral agreements, China seeks to secure access to these resources, promoting energy security and economic growth.
International reactions to the Cabbage Strategy
China's Cabbage strategy in the South China Sea has significant geopolitical implications. The increased militarization of artificial islands and territorial disputes have raised concerns among neighboring nations and beyond.
The United States, for example, has expressed concerns over freedom of navigation and has conducted naval patrols to challenge what it perceives as excessive maritime claims.
The economic initiatives in the region have also prompted a reevaluation of alliances and partnerships. In fact, some Southeast Asian nations have welcomed Chinese investment, while others have sought closer ties with the U.S. and its allies to counterbalance China's growing influence.
In recent months, the highest peaks of tension have been recorded between China and the Philippines.
In november 2023 the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs requested China to remove the “buildings” that PRC forces had built within Manila’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Beijing has not responded to these accusations, but instead has reiterated how, from its point of view, the Philippines are periodically violating Chinese territorial waters during the supply-missions to Philippine military contingents abroad.
Conclusions
If Beijing will not continue to carefully craft this strategy and adapt it, taking into account changing geopolitical dynamics, it could drag China into a series of local or larger-scale conflicts.
At the same time, the risk is worth the stakes from a PRC perspective.
In fact, the Cabbage strategy is allowing China to gradually acquire the economic-political leadership in the South China Sea area, without triggering an open conflict with neighboring nations, and at the same time is succeeding in gradually reducing US influence in East Asia.
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