The great decline: will the Chinese dragon bite its own tail?

The turning point

2023 could have been the turning point for China, with hopes regarding a potential loosening of centralized power under President Xi Jinping's leadership. However, expectations were dashed in the face of the continuation of the status quo, in a country reeling from a series of past crises, including the problematic handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, increasing restrictions on freedom of expression, a stagnant economy, and difficulties for foreigners within the country.

In this context, China has experienced a significant slowdown in its dynamic economic growth, which for decades has kept the Chinese Communist Party in power.

Due to numerous pressures, it was thought that Xi Jinping would loosen the tight control over the economy and society, but this has not been the case, confirming his influence with a third consecutive appointment as General Secretary and President of the Party. Despite it’s an unprecedented case, the public distrust has never been higher in his ten years in power. During the past, great leaders like his predecessors Mao Zedong or Deng Xiaoping had managed to face strong crises by adapting their approach to individual situations, but this is not happening today in China.

What about data?

Economic analysis reveals a country that seems to have reached its productive peak, signaling the impossibility of achieving the productivity standards of the Western giant, the United States. Factors such as demographic changes, public debt, and lower productivity have been cited as causes of this stagnant economic scenario. However, proper adaptation in economic management could mitigate the effects of a potential imminent and catastrophic decline.

Data from 2023 shows a modest economic growth, at 5%, mainly supported by massive public spending, with critical indicators such as youth unemployment and decline in key sectors like textiles.

This economic analysis, however, must be complemented and read alongside the political fossilization and ideological stiffening, which permeate Chinese society, with a government that intensifies measures to isolate citizens and limit civil liberties, including restricting religious groups and excluding academic institutions from international circuits. The effects of this crisis will be slow and progressive, not immediately visible, as Chinese society is rich in educated and dynamic individuals. Also, the government is still run by a competent bureaucracy capable of funding innovative projects, able to maintain the Dragon's reputation high.

Learning from the past

This attitude of closure and isolation raises fundamental questions about the future of China. It is logical to wonder if the country is following the path of the regimes of the Soviet bloc, sacrificing technological progress and popular support in favor of internal stability, turning inwards against the uncertainty of the outside world, through an obsession of the authorities and a stiffening towards society, translated into the omnipresence of the state within the civil and intellectual life of the country.

However, while the government often downplays economic analysis and promises changes and improvements, the country is suffering. In its 75 years in power, the Communist Party has managed numerous crises: from the Great Famine to the recent Sichuan earthquake, from the Cultural Revolution to the Tiananmen Square and Falun Gong massacres; many years have passed, and many people have forgotten. These events have crippled the country and, in some cases, someone has started to question the goodness of the government, wondering if Chinese leaders will continue to go unpunished. What will be the answers to such questions, especially in light of the current control over the media, which more and more efficiently suffocates criticisms in real time?

Perspectives

Considering a positive future scenario, where the economy will return to growth, current crises could be forgotten, and this would explain the government's resistance to change, despite factual pressures. However, history has taught us a fundamental detail: great leaders have managed to overcome the crises by introducing adaptations and experiments (Deng Xiaoping's market reforms for economic growth, for example). This is because the PRC (People’s Republic of China) was seen as a work in progress, constantly improving, while maintaining the authoritarian stamp of the regime, and not as an immutable political system. Today, there are no more signs of these ideas, there is no constructive self-criticism. 

In China, it was customary that in case of unpleasant events that undermined the image of the party, the leader went to the field to demonstrate interest and implicitly clean up their image. The current president, during his trips, does not focus on recognizing government responsibilities or expressing condolences, but on exhorting respect for Chinese doctrine, fueling the vision of a leadership distant from the people.

Finally, it is important to emphasize how China is striving to implement a subtle control over its citizens, offering only the illusion of freedom while strengthening its power and influence, distancing citizens from anything that could undermine the Party's image. A historical and factual narrative has been created, capable of consolidating leadership and legitimizing the regime: the Party is portrayed as essential for the survival of the country through an ideological internalization that goes beyond norms and regulations, making it very difficult to criticize a party that "creates improvements for society".

Historically, dissent inside communist parties in Europe arose with the decrease in economic growth, when questions were asked about this new reality: could the same thing happen now in China, in this period of stagnation? 

This approach, although it may guarantee temporary stability, could ultimately lead to erosion of the foundations of the regime itself. After all, the crisis related to Covid-19 originated from the Chinese system itself, which at the dawn silenced the first news about the virus, forcing subsequently the State to bend in front of the disastrous effects of the pandemic. Another example is the distancing of intellectuals from recent research and from the global scene: these barriers feed themselves and only create damage to China.

Will the dragon bite its own tail?