After Tusk-led coalition won Polish elections, crucial for European balance of party power, the following steps may be not easy.
Sunday, 15th October 2023 has marked a turning point in Polish and European politics: one of the fiercest anti-EU governments has lost the domestic elections, likely leaving the lead of the country to a former president of the European Council. But Donald Tusk’s path to reorient Polish politics might be tougher than what it seems. Namely, he will probably face difficulties which derive both from the constitution and the bureaucratic practice, potentially harming his pro-European and pro-civil rights agenda.
The first type of criticalities are the most political ones: the Polish Constitution (art. 122) gives the president the right to de facto veto legislation. More precisely, if the president has doubts about the «purposefulness» (1) of an act, «he may refer it to the Constitutional Tribunal for an adjudication upon its conformity to the Constitution» (2). The Polish Constitutional Tribunal has been in the international – especially European - spotlight several times in recent years, firstly during the so-called “Polish Constitutional Court Crisis” (2015-2016) and then because of its decisions about the primacy of communitarian (EU) law over the national one. Moreover, the tribunal is currently fully composed of judges nominated by Law and Justice (PiS), who are likely to oppose some of Tusk’s policies.
Theoretically, the president’s veto could be overcome with a 3/5 majority in the lower chamber (the Sejm), but, unfortunately for Tusk, his coalition’s victory was not that broad, and President Duda is expected to stay loyal to Law and Justice (PiS) party’s stances. Symbolically, he first appointed Morawiecki to form a government early this week, although knowing he does not have the chance to obtain a parliamentary vote of confidence. Duda justified his choice stating that he is just respecting the practice of first giving the task to the leader of the party who obtained the highest number of seats. While this is likely only to delay Tusk’s appointment (in case of lack of confidence, the parliament proposes another name), Duda’s move might be seen as a significant sign of his intentions in terms of accommodating the new majority’s positions.
Furthermore, the Polish bureaucratic apparatus is still heavily composed of people close to PiS, due to the party’s political domination which lasted almost ten years. After a long period of control by a political force which aimed to dramatically influence the country’s institutional - international and domestic – position, it should not be considered easy to quickly reverse this course. After all, politics is not a natural science like chemistry, where changing the ingredients is sufficient to drive the results of experiments away from an undesired outcome. It requires time, practice, and consensus to shift the direction of a nation’s management, especially when a country has been governed by a highly “brainwashing” elite.
Finally, the forces that form the winning coalition (Civic Coalition, Third Way, the Left) have just one clear thing in common: the opposition against PiS and the consequent pro-EU stance. Beyond that, the alliance will probably face some disagreements in several fields. One of them could be abortion rights since the Third Way bloc is supported by a lot of “liberal”, center-right voters who may turn up their noses in case of a proposal judged too progressive. In 2020, the aforementioned Constitutional Tribunal ruled in favor of an almost total ban, formally allowing abortion just in the event of the woman’s health risks or rape. During negotiations within the coalition which took place at the beginning of November, abortion rights were skipped, arguably on purpose to avoid disagreement.
In conclusion, several challenges are awaiting the Polish winning coalition, precisely the presidential veto power, the potential resistance of the bureaucracy, and ultimately some internal discrepancies, especially about civil rights. If, as is likely, Tusk will be the next Prime Minister, he will have to face these problems, also trying to exploit his European reputation. Arguably, a pro-EU Poland is vital for the Union’s future, being it a substantial country in terms of population (and therefore heavy when it comes to qualified majority voting) and a neighbor for those affected by a future enlargement eastward.
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