In 2023, a year marked by the persistence of conflict, including the ongoing war in Ukraine and the rapidly escalating conflict in Gaza, the world's attention was also captivated by a different kind of revolution: the rapid advancement and global awareness of artificial intelligence (AI). Amid the turmoil and transformation, AI emerged not just as a technological curiosity, but as a force ready to reshape industries, societies, and the very fabric of the labour market. As we navigate this pivotal moment in history, it is crucial to understand the potential implications of AI on employment and workforce dynamics. This article delves into the predictions made by a restricted, yet growing academic literature, offering insights into how AI is expected to influence job creation, displacement, and the evolution of work in the years to come.
Firstly, we shall define what we mean by Artificial Intelligence, the OECD describes it as follows”: Artificial Intelligence is a machine-based system that is capable of influencing the environment by producing an output (predictions, recommendations, or decisions) for a given set of objectives. It uses machine and/or human-based data and inputs to perceive real and/or virtual environments; abstract these perceptions into models through analysis in an automated manner (e.g., with machine learning), or manually; and use model inference to formulate options for outcomes. AI systems are designed to operate with varying levels of autonomy”.
The great power of AI comes from machine learning, which represents a groundbreaking shift in how technology interacts with the world. If software generally operates with pre-coded instructions by humans, machine learning algorithms enable computers to learn from data, recognize patterns and make decisions with minimal human intervention. This self-improving nature of machine learning sets it apart from previous technological innovations, ushering us into an era where technology can adapt, evolve, and potentially innovate.
Here comes the great difference both in nature and in impact compared to past technological advances: Software products and robotics have been able to replace humans in routine tasks such as assembly line work in manufacturing, transaction processing and data entry, which are characterized by predictability and repetitiveness, and because of such nature, they are easily subjected to automation.
On the other hand, non-routine tasks are less predictable and involve activities that cannot be easily programmed or automated but require human attributes like emotional intelligence, decision-making under uncertainty or complex problem-solving. Non-routine tasks can be both manual, including physical dexterity and the ability to navigate unpredictable environments such as repair work, and cognitive, involving abstract reasoning, strategic thinking, creativity and personal interaction, abilities that can be found in professions such as researchers, architects, crisis management and medical diagnosis.
The great innovation lies in the capacity, which has not been accomplished yet at a large scale, of artificial intelligence to reproduce non-routine tasks that to this day were considered exclusively possible through human execution. From this point, it is clear how in the next decades this might have a huge impact on the labour market by displacing, enhancing, or creating new jobs.
According to a 2022 White House report regarding the impact of Artificial Intelligence on employment states that an emerging body of research suggests that AI can outperform workers in an increasing set of complex tasks, mainly performed by educated ones.
Among all the research works taken into account in the report, we are looking specifically into one of them: The AIOE index (Artificial Intelligence Occupational Exposure) created by Edward W. Felten, a computer scientist at Princeton University, in collaboration with Assistant Professor Manav Raj at the Wharton School and Professor Robert Seamans at NYU Stern School of Business, allowing us to see how some jobs are exposed to AI. In their 2021 research article “Occupational, industry, and geographic exposure to artificial intelligence: A novel dataset and its potential uses” they identified 10 tasks that are increasingly well performed by AI (abstract strategy games, image recognition, language modelling…) and looked at how these skills could overlap with 52 different jobs people currently do. The big question they're trying to answer is simple: Which jobs will see the most change because of AI?
This index helps us see where AI might lend a helping hand, making jobs easier or more efficient, and where it might start doing the job instead of people. By citing it, we do not claim it to be universally recognized or more reliable than other research. Still, it might be helpful to make a reflection about the effect of AI on our society. This research article is part of a restricted yet growing academic literature concerning this topic.
Think of it like spotting which waves are likely to hit our job beach — some jobs might ride the wave, doing even better with AI, while others might need to brace for a bigger splash. This isn't just tech talk for scientists and economists; it is crucial info for everyone, from students picking a career path to workers thinking about learning new skills. As previously cited, they expect AI to have the biggest impact on abilities related to information processing, so a larger influence on cognitive tasks leading genetic counsellors, financial examiners, and risk analysts to score the highest to AI exposure, while dancers, fitness trainers, painters and paper hangers scored the lowest. We can take a more practical example, surgeons and butchers, both professions demand skilful physical manipulation of human or animal tissue, and physical abilities such as manual dexterity, finger dexterity and arm-hand steadiness are required in each occupation. At first sight, they seem like two jobs alike, but the first one faces a much higher level of exposure compared to the second, as the latest does not imply several cognitive abilities such as problem sensitivity, deductive and inductive reasoning and information ordering which are strongly required by surgeons.
Nonetheless, we must bear in mind that AI not only can automate work but also improve it. History is full of examples of occupations that were believed to disappear as a collateral effect of automation, but they subsequently transformed and thrived.
One of them is the installation of ATMs presented in a 2016 article by the American Enterprise Institute: in the 1990s in the United States ATMs installation involved around 400,000 units, so everybody assumed that tellers’ jobs would have disappeared, well, this assumption turned out to be incorrect.
Every bank branch reduced the number of tellers, but by employing ATMs they also saw a decrease in costs, which then allowed banks to open other subsidiaries and recruit new tellers, as a result, that profession witnessed an increasing demand for the labour market. In conclusion, as we navigate the dawn of a new era marked by technological innovations and significant global shifts, the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in transforming the job market is becoming increasingly prominent. Although we are only beginning to scratch the surface of AI's potential, its impact on employment is undeniable.
AI's capabilities are starting to influence simple and complex job tasks, signalling a future where AI integration in our professional and personal lives is inevitable. This transformation is gradual, allowing us time to prepare and adapt strategically. The essence of the topic is this: it is just a matter of time before AI will revolutionize the labour market by modifying existing roles, rendering some obsolete, and creating entirely new jobs. This necessitates a proactive approach from everyone involved. Keeping up with AI advancements and embracing a mindset of continuous learning is imperative to exploit the opportunities AI presents. The flourishing effects of AI on employment are just beginning to unfold, with significant changes on the horizon. We must seize this moment, preparing ourselves as much as possible for the upcoming adjustments.
Comments